Market Report: July 11, 2025 - Preparing for Friday's Session

Previous Session Recap

The major U.S. equity indices closed Thursday's session with mixed results as investors continued to digest corporate earnings and economic data ahead of the weekend. The S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), settled at $625.39, maintaining its position above the psychologically important $620 level that has served as key support throughout the week.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), closed at $555.66, showing resilience despite ongoing concerns about valuations in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), finished at $446.44, while small-cap stocks, as measured by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), closed at $224.89.

Thursday's session was characterized by moderate volume and cautious positioning as market participants awaited key economic data releases and continued to monitor corporate earnings reports. The session's trading pattern suggested investors remain optimistic about the broader economic outlook while maintaining selective approaches to individual stock picks.

Key Movers from Last Session

The previous session saw notable activity across several sectors, with technology and healthcare stocks drawing particular attention. While specific percentage moves from Thursday's close weren't immediately available, the positioning of major indices suggests continued institutional interest in large-cap growth names.

The semiconductor sector remained in focus following recent earnings reports and guidance updates from key industry players. Healthcare stocks also showed movement as investors evaluated pipeline developments and regulatory updates affecting various biotechnology companies.

Energy stocks continued to trade in line with crude oil price movements, while financial services names remained sensitive to interest rate expectations and regulatory policy discussions. Consumer discretionary stocks showed mixed performance as investors weighed consumer spending data against inflation concerns.

Overnight and Pre-market Outlook

Several significant developments have emerged since Thursday's market close that could influence Friday's trading session:

ASML's Policy Shift: Netherlands-based semiconductor equipment giant ASML announced it is dropping its U.S. diversity goals under the current administration's policies. This development could have broader implications for the semiconductor supply chain and may influence trading in related ETFs and individual semiconductor stocks. The move reflects the changing regulatory landscape and could signal similar policy adjustments from other multinational technology companies operating in the U.S. market.

Analyst Coverage Updates: Ladenburg Thalmann initiated coverage on Kala Bio with a Buy rating and a $12 price target, highlighting renewed interest in the biotechnology sector. This coverage initiation could spark broader interest in small-cap biotech names and may influence trading in healthcare-focused ETFs.

Sector Rotation Signals: The mention of Boeing, Joby Aviation, and Oracle in CNBC's "Final Trades" segment suggests continued interest in aerospace, electric aviation, and enterprise software sectors. These picks may indicate where institutional money is flowing and could serve as bellwethers for broader sector performance.

Pre-market futures activity will be crucial to monitor as Asian markets conclude their sessions and European markets continue trading. Any significant moves in currency markets, particularly the dollar index, could influence the opening direction for U.S. equities.

What to Watch at the Open

Friday's market open will be particularly important as it sets the tone for weekend positioning. Several key factors warrant close attention:

Semiconductor Sector Response: The ASML news could create ripple effects throughout the semiconductor ecosystem. Watch for movements in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and individual names like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel.

Biotech Momentum: The positive analyst coverage for Kala Bio may spark broader interest in biotechnology stocks. The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) could see increased volume as investors reassess the sector's prospects.

Volume Patterns: Friday sessions often see reduced volume as institutional investors complete weekly positioning. However, any significant news flow could override typical seasonal patterns.

Options Expiration Activity: Weekly options expiration could create additional volatility, particularly around key technical levels for major indices.

Economic Data Sensitivity: Any unexpected economic releases or Federal Reserve communications could significantly impact market direction.

Key Levels to Watch

Technical analysis suggests several critical levels for major indices as Friday's session approaches:

SPY (S&P 500): The current level of $625.39 sits comfortably above the key $620 support zone. Resistance appears around $630, with a break above potentially targeting $635. Downside support remains at $620, with more significant support at $615.

QQQ (Nasdaq 100): At $555.66, the tech-heavy index faces resistance near $560. A break above could target $565-$570. Support levels are established at $550 and more significantly at $545.

DIA (Dow Jones): The $446.44 level places the Dow near mid-range between support at $440 and resistance at $450. A break above $450 could target $455, while a move below $440 might test $435.

IWM (Russell 2000): Small-caps at $224.89 are approaching the $225 resistance level. A breakout could target $230, while support sits at $220 and more substantially at $215.

Conclusion

Friday's session promises to be eventful as investors digest the ASML policy news, evaluate new analyst coverage in biotechnology, and position for the weekend. The semiconductor sector's response to regulatory changes will be particularly telling for broader technology sector sentiment.

With major indices holding above key support levels, the technical backdrop remains constructive. However, investors should remain vigilant for any shifts in sector rotation patterns or unexpected news flow that could alter the current trajectory.

The combination of earnings season continuation, policy developments, and technical positioning suggests Friday could provide important directional clues for the following week's trading activity.